EDITOR’S NOTE: This is the second part of a weekly series called “Bracing for Impact,” which will explore Knox County’s future as the potential ‘next frontier’ for population growth in central Ohio. Click here to read the rest of the series.
MOUNT VERNON — Immigration set Knox County – and the rest of Ohio’s fastest-growing counties – apart over the last decade.
Counties that gained more residents than they lost (while also maintaining steady natural growth) generally had the highest growth rates, according to U.S. Census Bureau data released in August. And regional officials believe immigration will continue to play a key role in growth moving forward, as birth rates decline and Ohio’s population skews older.
“Natural increase (births minus deaths) has been steadily declining,” Liz Whelan-Jackson, data manager for the Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission, told Knox Pages last week. “So, our growth is increasingly reliant on attracting people to Central Ohio.”
So, how did Knox County gain more residents than it lost from 2010-2020? What drew or kept people here, as opposed to moving elsewhere?
Knox Pages has spoken with more than two dozen local leaders over the last two months – including longtime realtors, government officials, economic development experts and others – to try to answer that question.
Here were the main factors local officials pointed to:
The Columbus connection
Many major metropolitan areas in Ohio and the Midwest have lost population in recent decades. But not Columbus.
Columbus has nearly doubled in size since 1960, Forbes reported in 2018, making it one of the fastest-growing cities not only regionally, but also nationally. Ohio’s capital city was the fastest-growing major metropolitan area in the Midwest from 2010-2020, according to recently released Census data, and was the 17th-fastest growing city in the U.S. during that time.
And the counties surrounding Columbus have reaped the benefits. The city’s suburbs and neighboring counties have continued to grow since the 1990s, with central Ohio accounting for roughly 90% of the state’s overall growth over the last decade, according to an analysis by the Columbus Dispatch.
All this growth has created a simple supply-and-demand dynamic that has thrust Knox County into the spotlight, according to local officials.
As Columbus and its surrounding communities have become more crowded (and as the cost of living there has increased), more and more people have begun to widen their search radius to include the next layer of communities within striking distance of the big city. And that layer includes Knox County.
“It’s supply and demand. …” said Dave Culbertson, who has worked as a realtor in Knox County for 25 years.
He recalled going into John Glenn Columbus International Airport 10 years ago and seeing the “Columbus region” being marketed as Franklin County and its adjacent neighbors.
“Now, when you get on their website, they feature the next ring of counties, including Knox,” Culbertson said. “So, all of a sudden … there’s more of an awareness that we even exist.”
Local real estate agents have varying opinions on exactly what share of homes in Knox County are currently being sold to Columbus-area buyers. Some say it’s approximately 40%, while others say it’s closer to 70%.
Sibley Poland, who has worked as a realtor in Knox County for 17 years, said this percentage has “increased greatly” over the past decade.
“It used to be unheard of that a Columbus agent would trek all the way up here, an hour out of their way. …” she said. “The droves of agents coming to Knox County (in recent years) has just been overwhelming.”
When a home goes up for sale now in Knox County, and the bidding process begins, Poland said it’s not uncommon to see Columbus-area agents and buyers outnumber local representatives.
“I had a country property listed in the middle of the summer, which was the height of the (market) frenzy, if you will. I believe we had eight offers, and seven of them were from Columbus agents, writing those offers for clients, and one Knox County agent. And that is typical,” Poland said.
“The number of Columbus agents competing here and representing buyers in our area is astronomical.”
The COVID-19 pandemic has only hastened this trend, according to local officials. As work-from-home culture has become more permanent in some workplaces, with companies only requiring in-person attendance once or twice a week, employees have been able to consider more broadly where they want to live.
The relationship between where one works and where they live has changed, and local officials believe that’s opened the door for Knox County to market itself to a wider audience.
“It’s a game-changer for a community like ours because the person who says, ‘I don’t want to drive 45 minutes to an hour (to work) every day, if they have the ability to work remotely, it’s not an issue because they’re gonna work from their home. …” said Sam Miller, who’s worked as a realtor in Knox County for 35 years.
“All of the things that make a (place) like Mount Vernon or Knox County special really stand out when you take the commute out of the equation.”
Most local officials don’t expect this work-from-home phenomenon to go away any time soon. They view it as a long-term trend, with lasting implications on Knox County’s positioning within the central Ohio real estate market.
“I don’t think we’ll ever return to the same type of work schedules we’ve seen in the past. I think employers have figured out there are a lot of things people can do from home, and they’re as or more productive from home. …” said Thom Collier, who has worked as a realtor in Knox County for 18 years.
“It’s a definite trend that I don’t think we’re gonna see reverse any time soon.”
With central Ohio booming and buyers widening their search radius from Columbus, Knox County appears to be a part of the logical ‘next frontier’ for growth. But there are other communities on that frontier as well, all positioned within an hour of the capital city.
What separated Knox County over the last decade, making it one of the fastest-growing counties in Ohio? What other factors were at play?
Affordable, peaceful living
Some of the main factors driving people to Knox County in recent years are things longtime local residents may take for granted, local officials say.
First, the county’s low cost-of-living.
Knox County ranks third out of central Ohio’s 15 counties in median home price, according to Zillow.
It costs, on average, roughly $178,000 to buy a home here, compared to $258,000 in Licking County and $298,000 in Delaware County. Knox County’s median home price is also lower than nearby Morrow County ($183,000) and Marion County ($192,000).
Knox County also carries a 1.21% property tax rate, according to SmartAsset.com. This falls below the state average of 1.48% and ranks eighth in central Ohio. It finishes well ahead of Licking County (1.45%), Delaware County (1.82%) and Franklin County (2.05%), and mirrors nearby Morrow County (1.18%) and Marion County (1.28%).
Prospective home buyers have picked up on this, local officials say. Knox County’s affordability has given it an advantage over other areas in central Ohio in recent years, and may continue to do so if current trends continue.
“‘We’d like to be somewhere between 30 and 45 minutes from Columbus’ is the first thing we hear on the telephone. They’re thinking about the commute time,” Miller said.
“But then, after they come up and look, sometimes 30-45 minutes becomes 45-60 because they can’t believe they can get a house with two acres of land for substantially less than they can get a house in a subdivision. They’re attracted to having land and space.”
People have also been drawn to Knox County for its quiet, rural lifestyle, local officials say. It offers a distinct change-of-pace from Columbus and its surrounding communities, with a low population density and no major highways running through it.
“I think the rural lifestyle still exists here,” Collier said. “People like that.”
Safety is another factor driving people to Knox County, local officials say. While bigger cities may see higher volumes of violent crime – Columbus set a homicide record in 2020, and is currently on-pace to break that record again this year – Knox County is far less prone to such offenses.
“You can distinguish Knox County from urban areas like Cleveland or Columbus on the basis of the occurrence of violent crime. It is certainly less frequent here,” Knox County Prosecutor Chip McConville said, adding that Knox County still sees drug crime and property crime like most communities.
“We have maybe one homicide a year – the last few years it’s been one homicide every other year. Cleveland and Columbus have hundreds every year. Now, they are more populated. But generally speaking, I think if you were to compare on an apples-to-apples basis, in terms of violent crimes per capita … I think the violent crime rate here is lower than in urban areas across Ohio and the country.”
Miller recalled a recent interaction with one family whose decision to move to Knox County was based largely on safety.
“They made the decision to move here when they saw they had to have police in their local grocery store,” Miller said. “You come to a small town and it’s a whole different game compared to what they’re used to.”
Educational, economic opportunities
The quality of Knox County’s local school districts has also helped attract new residents, local officials say. Knox County’s six K-12 districts regularly boast graduation rates of 90% or higher, and offer a wide array of collaborative extracurricular experiences.
“Families are really attracted to Mount Vernon and Knox County because I feel like our school systems are really good. They have a lot of opportunities for the kids to play sports or get involved in music, drama … of course we have MTVarts here, which is fantastic,” said John Yoder, who has worked as a realtor in Knox County for nine years.
“We have Sting Soccer, we have the YMCA, and their gymnastics program is really good. We have Kenyon’s swimming program (which shares resources with Mount Vernon City Schools). We just have so many different things. … It’s a great place for families, and I think that’s probably the demographic that I see most prominently that’s really attracted to this area.”
People have also moved to Knox County for job opportunities, local officials say.
Many of the county’s largest employers have grown over the last decade, and particularly in the last few years. Data from the Area Development Foundation shows that between 2017 and 2020, four of the county’s top five employers increased employment (and in some cases, increased their local geographic footprint as well).
The county did lose two major employers during the last decade – Siemens Corporation in Mount Vernon and J.B. Foote Foundry in Fredericktown – and according to ADF President Jeff Gottke, most of those employees either retired or found work outside of the county. But he believes the growth of the county’s other major employers may have helped offset some of those losses.
“You look to our larger employers and the growth they’ve undergone in that time period,” Gottke said in August, when asked about what led to the county’s overall growth from 2010-2020. “Our large manufacturers have grown, our health care providers have grown.”
Gottke said Knox County’s economic diversity also sets it apart from other communities its size. The county’s five largest employers encompass four different economic sectors, including manufacturing, health care, education and government.
Even the two manufacturing leaders, Ariel Corporation and Jeld-Wen, serve different industries (energy and construction).
“That really is not a combination that you see in every county,” added Carol Grubaugh, executive director of the Knox County Chamber of Commerce. “Other counties may be strong in one of those areas, but may not necessarily have all of those areas. … That’s something that is appealing to people.”
Entertainment options, community spirit
Prospective home buyers have also taken notice of Knox County’s diverse blend of entertainment opportunities, which local officials say is uncommon for communities its size.
The county boasts two newly renovated indoor venues in its downtown district – the Woodward Opera House and the Knox Memorial – as well as Ariel-Foundation Park on the south end of town.
The Woodward is known as America’s oldest authentic 19th-century theater still standing, and Ariel-Foundation Park has been recognized internationally as an example of industrial reuse. The Knox Memorial recently received substantial upgrades and will celebrate its 100th birthday in 2025.
These venues have brought musicians and performers from across the country to Knox County, and they’ve also given local performers of all ages the opportunity to learn and grow under the lights. They’ve served as a point of pride for Knox County’s blossoming arts community, which has brought together residents from all backgrounds over the years.
Local officials say these venues – and the fruits they bear – set Knox County apart from other communities its size.
“I think that’s not something you come across often in a setting like ours, where you can go down to football Friday night, and then on Saturday you can go to a showing of this really prestigious, Nutcracker-like performance,” said Olivia Toth, marketing manager for the Knox County Convention & Visitors Bureau. “I think it’s really unique in that way.”
Knox County has also stood out through its recreational opportunities, local officials say. The county offers three connecting bike paths – the Heart of Ohio Trail, the Kokosing Gap Trail, and the Mohican Valley Trail – stretching nearly 35 miles, from one end of the county to the other.
As biking has risen in popularity over the last decade-plus, Toth said more and more people have begun to notice what Knox County has to offer. She said the CVB’s office (located at the historic CA&C Depot in downtown Mount Vernon) has seen cyclists stop in from across the country, most using the Ohio to Erie Trail.
She said most will comment on how clean the trails are and how scenic the path through Knox County is.
“And that’s a bigger deal as more people are becoming health conscious,” Miller said. “I’ve had people that have come here to look at houses and they’ve had bikes on the back of their vehicle because they’re going to ride the Kokosing Gap Trail while they’re here. The Heart of Ohio Trail, same there. There are so many amenities here from that aspect.”
The county also boasts six golf courses – including Apple Valley Golf Club, ranked in the top 10 statewide, according to the CVB – and a long list of scenic parks and nature reserves.
Local officials have also said Knox County’s regular community events – such as First Fridays, the Mount Vernon Farmers Market (recently voted best in Ohio), its annual festivals and more – have made an impression on prospective residents.
These events bring the community together, Mount Vernon Mayor Matt Starr noted, and put on full display its neighborly, small-town nature.
“There is a community spirit – I almost want to say it’s untouchable, but that’s the vibe you get,” Starr said. “And people want to be around that.”
Investment leads to momentum
Local officials have also cited something less tangible – but just as important – when discussing what’s drawn people to Knox County in recent years: positive momentum.
Take downtown Mount Vernon, for example.
The area has seen significant investment over the last decade-plus, largely spearheaded by private individuals, philanthropic organizations and community partners. Millions of dollars have been poured into the county’s geographic center, helping to revitalize a once-quiet corridor.
Lisa Lloyd, program director for the Knox County Foundation, grew up in Mount Vernon. She recalled vividly the way its downtown district looked then – near the turn of the century, when retail had begun to move out and storefronts sat empty – and marveled at what it’s become.
“Nobody ever came downtown when I was a kid. I mean, except for parades and the Christmas festival, that’d be the only time that people ever really came downtown. I feel like now, downtown is more of a destination place,” Lloyd said.
“You go there, you can go out to eat, you can go to a show. There are things that you can actually do. You actually see people walking around downtown, which never really happened 10 to 20 years ago. And a lot of that is due to all of this investment.”
All three institutions of higher learning in Knox County – Mount Vernon Nazarene University, Kenyon College, and Central Ohio Technical College – have opened facilities downtown over the last decade-plus. The Mount Vernon Grand Hotel opened on Public Square, the Knox Memorial received substantial upgrades, and the historic Woodward Opera House hosted its first show in nearly a century after 20 years of renovation and restoration.
The city’s downtown district added upscale loft apartments, parking spaces and public art. Vacant storefronts were filled by ambitious entrepreneurs, ready to invest in the community and contribute to its growth.
“It does build on itself. …” Knox County Foundation Executive Director Jeffrey Scott said of the momentum. “I think there is now this sense of real hopeful optimism.”
While downtown wasn’t the only part of Mount Vernon that saw substantial investment over the last decade – Ariel-Foundation Park opened in 2015, for example – local officials believe it helped set the tone for a larger movement within the city and county.
All four of the county’s major villages – Centerburg, Danville, Fredericktown and Gambier – are now in the process of strategically planning for the future, through the support of the Knox County Foundation and Area Development Foundation.
Steering committees are considering downtown redevelopment initiatives, re-examining zoning codes, and gathering community feedback to help shape the future of their villages.
Prospective residents have taken notice of this, local officials say. And this momentum – a collaborative effort between public and private entities to move the county forward – has helped separate Knox County from the pack.
“Towns that are more vibrant and have more to do either attract people or retain people at a higher level than those that don’t,” said Gottke, underscoring the intentionality of the revitalization that has occurred here over the last decade-plus.
“That’s why we spend a lot of our time working on vibrancy within towns, knowing the effect it has on economic growth.”
Next week on “Bracing for Impact”: We’ll tell the actual human stories of those who chose to move here over the last decade. What drew them here, and what do they think about that decision now, years later? Then, we’ll begin to look into the future, examining Knox County’s potential for growth in the coming decades.
